The Dominion Post in New Zealand recently published a doomsday prognosis based on the antiquated bugaboo of overpopulation. They actually avoid defining what they mean by overpopulation, which is always convenient. But let us look at some of the claims they make.
1. They say the world’s population “growth rate has been slowing in recent years, but only slightly.”
This is as understated as their claims of eminent disaster are overstated. They say that the United Nations estimates the world’s population will top out around 9.4 billion. Only a few years ago the UN was saying it would be 12 billion. So in a few years time they have reduced their estimate by 3 billion people. The Dominion Post calls that slight.
To put that into context that is equivalent of the total population of China, India and the United States combined. Hardly a trifling number I would say. In Kiwi terms that is the same as eradicating the entire population of New Zealand 650 times over.
The total fertility rate, that is the number of children born to each woman on average, has been dropping like a stone in spite of the Post’s claim that there have been only slight decreases. In the early 70s the TFR was 5.2 children. By the early 90s it had dropped to 3.6. By the beginning of this century it was standing at 2.97. And today it is estimated to be 2.59. So the world TFR has been cut in half over the span of about half a lifetime.
It is generally conceded that for a nation to have a stable population it must have a TFR of 2.1. According to the CIA World Factbook there are 103 countries in the world with a TFR that is at or below this level. This includes the United States and Canada, virtually all of Europe, much of South America, and much of Asia. Nations that are close to dropping below their replacement levels include Mexico, Indonesia, Colombia, Jordan, and India.
Of course birth rates only tell you how many people are entering the building, so to speak. What about the exits? The main driving force of world population today is not birth rates but death rates, or to be more precise, the decline in death rates. People are living longer. More infants are surviving into adulthood. This decline in deaths is the main reason populations have grown. That, however, is a conundrum for overpopulation hysterics like the Post. It is one thing to recommend that people have fewer children but how does one recommend that people die faster and in larger numbers? That is why they actually ignore the driving force of population growth today -- longer life spans.
2. The Post argues that there are “ominous signs that the world might be reaching capacity.” Doomsday day prophets never have a shortage of ominous signs since almost anything unpleasant is usually attributed to their panic du jour. Their evidence in this editorial is that the UN “called for immediate help for poor countries hit by spiralling food prices. Those countries were spending 25 per cent more on food imports in 2007 than they had in 2006...” No doubt this is true. But let us look at what has happened and who is responsible.
World food production has been increasing dramatically over for decades now. World food supplies have been increasing faster than the world’s population. In the 1960s only 42 percent of nations had an average daily caloric intake that was equal to 100% of daily requirements. By the 70s it was 52 percent, by the 80s it was 66 percent. Nations which previously couldn’t produce enough food, such as India, China and Vietnam, became net food exporters. Then the environmental hysterics got involved and starting pushing biofuels.
To push biofuels they confiscated large sums of money poorer taxpayers and poured it into the coffers of wealthy special interest groups like Agribusiness and Big Energy companies. The politicians decided to offer subsidies to produce biofuels. Those biofuels started gobbling up massive amounts of the agricultural sector bidding up world food prices. One fuel tank of ethanol requires the food sufficient to feed one person for an entire year. The Financial Times reported that Josette Sheeran of the World Food Programme “said policy makers were becoming more concerned about the impact of biofuel demand on food prices...” The paper said “biofuel production will sustain food inflation and hit the world’s poorest people.”
The Rest Here: http://freestudents.blogspot.com/2008/01/panic-djure-overpopulation.html