By Robert M. Wagner, Candidate Ohio 15th District
http://robertwagner08.com/
(full version here)
Smoking Gun #1: Al Gore’s own chart doesn’t support his conclusion.
One of the most basic principles of science is cause and effect. You change the cause and measure what effect it has. For instance, you have identical mice twins; one you exercise on a tread mill, the other sits on a couch watching an exercise show. Both are given equal calories of food. From this experiment you can determine the weight loss per hour of tread mill exercise ceteris paribus (all else held equal). The most basic concept of anthropogenic (man-made) global warming is that an increase in atmospheric CO2 causes atmospheric temperature to increase through the greenhouse effect. Therefore, when Al Gore gets on the fork lift to show that atmospheric CO2 is at an all time high, you would expect temperature to be at or at least near an all time high as well. Problem is, AL Gore’s chart shows that CO2 is almost 30% higher than any time before in the last 650,000 years, and yet temperatures aren’t even at a peak of the last 1,000 years, and all major peaks are well above today’s temperature as well.
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Smoking Gun #2: Lack of consistent data.
As a portfolio manager, one of the main obstacles faced was data integrity. If I was going to model the Dow Jones Industrial Index, I had to ensure that the data I was using in the model was accurate. If I used bad data, or data from another index, the results of my model would give unreliable results. You never want to have a conclusion where the result depends on what data you used. Case in point, I have a brother-in-law that is a big Bill Clinton fan. The Dow Jones Industrial Index, S&P 500 Index, Mid-Cap Indices and Small-Cap Indices are all at or near their all time highs, and yet he will claim that the markets aren’t at new highs, and that President Bush lost him money. Ignoring the fact that his home is worth much more, and his take home pay is much higher after the Bush tax cuts, he is correct in saying that the markets aren’t at all time highs if you define the NASDAQ as the market. No matter what evidence I provide, there is always going to be some index that he can find to prove me wrong. A good theory shouldn’t however be based upon what data set is chosen. With global warming, the critical data is atmospheric CO2 and Temperature. The problem is, if the claim is made that temperatures are at all time highs all you need to do is ask, “according to what chart?” The IPCC report has had a different chart for temperature in each of its major reports. According to the 1995 IPCC Report, current temperatures are well below the highest level set over the last 2,000 years. Then in the 2001 report, the original chart was replaced with the notorious “Hockey Stick” Chart. With the release of the 2007 report, there is a totally new temperature chart. One has to ask, how can there be a consensus when there isn’t even agreement on the data that goes into the models. To make matters worse, Al Gore uses two different temperature charts in his own movie. One showing peak temperature and the other not.
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Smoking Gun #3: In any cause and effect model, the cause must occur before the effect. I exercise, and then I lose weight. It makes no sense to claim that exercise caused the weight loss, if you exercise after the weight was lost. Correlation studies show that CO2 increases AFTER temperature, not before it. Basically, the sun warms the earth and oceans, things begin to grow and produce CO2, CO2 then increases. The key however is that things must warm first, and then CO2 increases. Things cool, and then CO2 decreases. Temperature drives CO2, CO2 does not drive temperature. This chart demonstrates how CO2 remains at peak levels, and yet temperatures plummet into an ice age. In fact, ice ages usually begin during times of relatively high CO2.
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Smoking Gun #4: Infrared radiation doesn’t penetrate the oceans, and is absorbed in the very top “micro-layer” of the oceans. The greenhouse effect does not warm the oceans, and yet evidence shows that both the surface and deep oceans are warming. That means that there are either two systems at work here 1) one that is warming the atmosphere and another that is warming the oceans or 2) the same system is warming both the atmosphere and the oceans. Common sense would lead one to conclude that the same system that is warming the oceans is also warming the atmosphere. If that is the case, the sun is essentially the only source of warming for the oceans.
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Smoking Gun #5: The sun is getting hotter and its output has a higher correlation with temperatures than CO2. This is also consistent with a warmer ocean. Ironically, records show that the solar output began its increase near the beginning of the industrial age. This chart shows both the solar output and atmospheric CO2. Clearly, solar output has a much greater correlation with temperature than CO2.
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Smoking Gun #6: There is evidence that the entire solar system is warming, not just here on earth. There is evidence that both Mars and Pluto are warming. It is logical to assume that what is warming Mars and Pluto is also warming the Earth. The only factor that is common to all three is the sun and volcanic activity.
Chart and Video
Smoking Gun #7: The Northern Hemisphere is warming more than the Southern Hemisphere, in fact some data claims that the Southern Hemisphere is actually cooling, yet more solar radiation falls on the Southern Hemisphere. CO2 is evenly distributed around the globe both by altitude and latitude. That means that CO2 in Antarctica is the same as at the Equator, and the same at sea level and 10,000 feet. First, given that CO2 is evenly distributed and more sun light falls on the Southern Hemisphere; one would then conclude that since more radiation falls on the Southern Hemisphere and therefore can be absorbed by the Greenhouse effect, one would expect that the Southern Hemisphere would be warming relative to the Northern Hemisphere. Second, if solar input isn’t the cause, if CO2 is evenly distributed, one would expect there to be no difference between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres if CO2 is the critical factor. If CO2 doesn’t vary, and Temperature is dependent upon CO2, then one would not expect temperature to vary either. The problem is CO2 is a constant at any given time, and yet temperatures are highly variable. It is hard to explain such variability with a constant.
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Smoking Gun #8: Because CO2 does not vary around the Globe, and yet temperatures are increasing more in the Northern Hemisphere than Southern, one must look for what is different between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. The main difference between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere’s atmosphere is water vapor. Water vapor has been increasing in the Northern Hemisphere along with temperatures. The Southern Hemisphere has not seen a similar increase in precipitation. The evidence shows that where the water vapor is, there is a corresponding increase in temperatures.
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Smoking Gun #9: Water vapor is the most significant Greenhouse gas, and the atmospheric temperature follows very closely atmospheric humidity. This chart demonstrates atmospheric humidity and atmospheric temperature. Remember, CO2 is evenly distributed in the atmosphere, so if CO2 was the gas that trapped heat, temperature would be evenly distributed, not in an arcuate pattern. In fact, these two charts are so similar; I will leave it up to you to determine which is temperature and which is precipitation. The point is they are nearly identical.
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Smoking Gun #10: In any model or experiment, you need to clearly define all the significant variables in the model. If you are doing an experiment on weight loss, you would have to define the amount of exercise and caloric intake of the people in the study to have a valid study. If you left either one of these variables out, it is highly unlikely that your model would have much explanatory power. One of the foundations of the Anthropogenic Green House gas effect is a value called the Global Warming Potential (GWP). It measures the relative “forcing” of the various greenhouse gasses to CO2, which is always assigned the value of 1. If water vapor is the most significant greenhouse gas responsible for up to 95% of the greenhouse gas effect according to some studies, then surely the IPCC must have a GWP for water vapor if their models are to be valid. I will leave it up to the readers to find the GWP of water vapor used in the IPCC studies. Hint, don’t spend too much time looking for it, it doesn’t exist. One must ask, how can you have a consensus on a theory when the models used don’t even include the most significant variable? That is like doing a weight loss study and ignoring exercise and caloric intake.
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Smoking Gun #11: The atmosphere is warming more in the winter than in the summer. The earth is closer to the sun in winter than in summer; therefore if the sun is getting hotter, one would expect the earth to get relatively hotter when it is relatively closer to the sun. Perihelion, when the earth is closest to the sun, occurs on January 3rd.
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Smoking Gun #12: Part of the calculation for the GWP includes a value called the “residency life.” This is a measure of how long a greenhouse gas stays in the atmosphere once it is produced; the longer the residency life the higher the GWP. Once again, to have a valid model, each variable has to be clearly defined. The IPCC reports have estimates of the residency life of CO2 ranging from 5 to 200 years IN THE SAME REPORT. Studies on atmospheric C14 prove that at most, the residency life is 30 years for CO2. Most credible studies place it closer to 7 years. Once again, how can you have a consensus, when the most significant variables aren’t clearly defined?
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Smoking Gun #13: Weather is a part of climate. Climate is a long term composite of all weather patterns. Weather forecasts aren’t accurate beyond even a few days, let alone years in the future. If you can’t even model part of a model (weather), how can you have any reliability in a model trying to explain the whole climate, which is infinitely more complex than each of its parts (weather)?
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Smoking Gun #14: Major arguments made by the so called “experts” have been debunked. Glaciers on Mount Kilimanjaro are shrinking but it isn’t due to warming. Parts of Antarctica and the North Pole are melting due to ocean temperatures and volcanic activity, not global warming. The decrease in Bumblebees is due to a parasite, not global warming. Unless the Vikings living and farming in Greenland and the Romans having wineries in Northern England are myths, then there most likely was a medieval warming period, if so, than current temperatures are not the hottest in the last 1,000 or so years. Global warming is not causing more and stronger hurricanes. Many glaciers are expanding.
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Smoking Gun #15: CO2 has gradually and continually increased since 1800, yet temperature fell between 1940 and 1980, giving rise the “coming ice age” scare of the late 1970’s. Also note from the below chart that the rate of change of CO2 (black arrow) greatly increases after 1950, yet the rate of change of temperature (red arrow) remains unchanged, and even fell between 1950 and 1960 (green arrow).
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Note, the temperature is the same in 1945 as it was in 1995 (57.5). The chart peaked in 1945, and bottomed in 1977, reached a peak again in 1998, and has been falling ever sense.
Smoking Gun #16: The IPCC admits that they know very little about solar output and do not even include water vapor as a greenhouse gas in their reports.
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Smoking Gun #17: Data measurement techniques give different results. Balloon and satellite temperature measurements do not confirm ground measurement temperatures. Only ground temperature measurements, biased by the heat island effect and the recent reduction of measuring stations, show atmospheric warming. NASA claims that according to satellites, there has been no warming in the last 18+ years.
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Smoking Gun #18: The oceans, not man, control atmospheric CO2. Atmospheric CO2 is regulated by the oceans and Henry’s law. Unless the oceans are saturated with CO2, any additional CO2 produced by man would be absorbed in the oceans. The oceans act as the world’s hemoglobin, adjusting the atmospheric CO2.
Smoking Gun #19: Water vapor absorbs the majority of the Infrared spectrum, whereas CO2 only absorbs at three very narrow bands, much of which overlaps with water vapor.
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Smoking Gun #20: If anthropogenic global warming is correct, Mother Nature must be wrong. Mother Nature, before, during and will continue after man to deliberately increase greenhouse gasses as the earth warms. Water vapor, precipitation, methane and CO2 all increase with temperature. Mother Nature has built in systems to increase greenhouse gasses with an increase in temperature. Any efforts to reverse what Mother Nature does will likely be futile because she is responsible for 95% of atmospheric CO2, while man only creates a minuscule and insignificant 5%. Man only creates a drop in the bucket when it comes to atmospheric CO2.
Smoking Gun #21: CO2 is 380 parts per million. Man only produces 5% of that. CO2 is a relatively weak greenhouse gas, so man produces only 5% of a relatively weak greenhouse gas. In contrast, water vapor is a far more potent greenhouse gas, and is sometimes 4% of the atmosphere. The atmospheric concentration of Water vapor is often 100 times greater than CO2, and it absorbs far more infrared radiation.
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Smoking Gun #22: NASA recently had to adjust 120 years of historical temperature data due to a calculation error. This error was not identified by a “peer review” scientist, but a Canadian blogger. It turns out that 1998 wasn’t the warmest year of the last century, it was 1934. This is important because most of the CO2 increase occurred in the second half of the century, while the hottest years occurred in the first half of the century with lower CO2. Temperatures have actually fallen since 1934 during record CO2 levels.
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Note: Once the data is adjusted, this chart doesn’t look so frightening. The last peak is actually below the first major peak.
Smoking Gun #23: Even after the NASA data was found to be in error, there was no change in the “consensus.” Could you imagine a drug company finding an error in their main data and claiming that their conclusion hasn’t changed? That simply isn’t how good science is practiced. In any real science, all the models and conclusions based on the erroneous data would be thrown out. This is the only science I know of where inaccurate data isn’t a problem. More importantly, the claim of “consensus” was based upon an erroneous research method that even the original researcher admits was done in error and adjusted the figure downward to 75%. Recent efforts to update the research were not able to replicate the original findings.
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Smoking Gun #24: Cosmic rays and temperature fit “very beautifully,” whereas the correlation between temperature and CO2 is almost nonexistent, and in fact temperature leads CO2, implying the CO2 drives temperature model has its cause and effect reversed.
Smoking Gun #25: Unlike the cosmic ray theory which has been tested in laboratory experiments, there are no laboratory experiments proving that changing atmospheric CO2 from 280 to 380 parts per million can explain the observed change in atmospheric temperatures, or any temperature change for that matter. If the CO2 temperature model actually worked, it would be replicated in every science class room in the world. The experiment would be as simple as shining a bright white light that mimics the sun’s spectrum on a flask holding differing amounts of trace CO2 and measuring the temperature difference. The fact that this experiment isn’t run is like Sherlock Holmes’s dog that didn’t bark; the silence is deafening.
Smoking Gun #26: The Nobel Prize given to Al Gore and the IPCC was a Nobel “Peace” Prize, not for the actual science. If the science is so sound, and the consensus so solid, why wasn’t the Nobel Prize for Physics of Chemistry awarded?
Smoking Gun #27: The polar bear population has been exploding, as has the caribou herd near Prudhoe Bay pipeline. Polar Bears simply aren’t endangered, and a shorter cold season and shorter period of hibernation may actually be health for them. More time to eat and less time sleeping.
Smoking Gun #28: Different CO2 measurement methodologies deliver widely different results. Direct or “chemical” measurement gives a highly variable atmospheric CO2 concentration, whereas ice core measurements are almost geometric or linear in nature. Clearly, model results would be wildly different depending which data set was used. How can you have a consensus when atmospheric CO2 concentration data isn’t even consistent?
